Israel closes its airspace by September 30?69%59.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?50%9.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?34%15.5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%10.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%14.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 5?13%5.5Did Claude just solve navier stokes??27%12.3Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?49%14.0Bitcoin Up or Down on September 5?65%4.0Fed rate hike in 2026?72%10.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?24%4.5Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?10%7.0Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?86%21.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%8.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?86%0.5Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?29%29.5
ManifoldPoliticsUpdated 51d ago

Donald Trump praise Allah again before 2027?

Final price
49.4%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 49.4%.

Final market price
49.4%
Event deadline
December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
Probability 24 hours before event deadline
49.4%
Probability seven days before event deadline
49.4%
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Donald Trump praise Allah again before 2027? The final Manifold price was 49.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 49.4%.

Market data as of
July 15, 2026 at 5:39 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
December 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
51d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump publicly makes a statement praising Allah at least once between June 11, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Donald Trump publicly makes a statement praising Allah at least once between June 11, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. To qualify: Trump must verbally speak or write in a public post (on official channels such as Truth Social, X/Twitter, or via an official campaign/press release) a phrase explicitly praising Allah, such as "Praise be to Allah", "Praise Allah", or "Alhamdulillah" (or their clear equivalents). Intent (e.g., whether the statement is sarcastic, mocking, or sincere) will not affect resolution; any direct public usage of the phrase by Trump will trigger a YES resolution. Only new instances occurring after June 11, 2026, count. Past instances (such as his posts on April 5, 2026, and June 10, 2026) do not qualify. Resolution will be verified via credible news reporting (e.g., AP, Reuters, Forbes) or direct archives of his verified accounts. Background On April 5, 2026 (Easter Sunday), Donald Trump ended an aggressive Truth Social post directed at Iran with the phrase "Praise be to Allah." On June 10, 2026, he repeated the phrase "Praise be to Allah!" in another Truth Social post boasting about a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. These remarks have drawn significant media coverage and public reaction amidst escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. This market tracks whether he will employ this phrasing again before the end of 2026. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ10

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ149.8

Category
Politics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
49.4%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026

Related markets