Will the US Initial Jobless Claims figure published this week be higher than 226,000?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 45.1%.
- Final market price
- 45.1%
- Event deadline
- June 25, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the US Initial Jobless Claims figure published this week be higher than 226,000? The final Manifold price was 45.1%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 45.1%.
- Market data as of
- June 28, 2026 at 9:59 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:42 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 25, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 114d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution will be based on official US data and credible reporting, including: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta Resolution will be based on the headline number, which is typically rounded to the nearest thousand, not the raw underlying data. If the report is not released this week (before end of Sunday, Eastern Time), the market would resolve as N/A.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution will be based on official US data and credible reporting, including: https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta Resolution will be based on the headline number, which is typically rounded to the nearest thousand, not the raw underlying data. If the report is not released this week (before end of Sunday, Eastern Time), the market would resolve as N/A. I will aim to resolve this market within one day of the market closing, unless there is material uncertainty or disagreement about the outcome. I may bet on this market.