Will OpenAI share an official framework for disclosing misalignment incidents by the end of October 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 47.8%.
- Final market price
- 47.8%
- Event deadline
- October 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 47.8%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 47.8%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will OpenAI share an official framework for disclosing misalignment incidents by the end of October 2026? The final Manifold price was 47.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 47.8%.
- Market data as of
- September 19, 2026 at 12:29 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- November 1, 2026 at 4:59 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 43d ago
What this market actually measures
In response to independent researchers discovering OpenAI's LLMs using outside wikis to coordinate tasks, OpenAI promised that they are working on a framework for disclosing such incidents and "will share it in upcoming weeks". Will this framework be released by the end of October?
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
In response to independent researchers discovering OpenAI's LLMs using outside wikis to coordinate tasks, OpenAI promised that they are working on a framework for disclosing such incidents and "will share it in upcoming weeks". Will this framework be released by the end of October? To resolve yes, it must be officially released on openai's website and have at least some objective criteria for determining that an incident will be publically disclosed. A document that leaves disclosure entirely to OpenAI's judgment resolves NO. Failure to publish any relevant document is also NO. OpenAI (@OpenAI) on X [link preview]