Will a visible “chemtrail” be captured by a UW–Madison rooftop camera between 9 AM and 1 PM CT on October 15th, 2026?
Source: Manifold price history
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 41.2%.
- Final market price
- 41.2%
- Event deadline
- October 15, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will a visible “chemtrail” be captured by a UW–Madison rooftop camera between 9 AM and 1 PM CT on October 15th, 2026? The final Manifold price was 41.2%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 41.2%.
- Market data as of
- October 16, 2026 at 4:52 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 16, 2026 at 4:55 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 15, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 4m ago
What this market actually measures
This market covers the fixed 9:00 AM–1:00 PM Central Time observation window over Madison, Wisconsin. Resolution will be based exclusively on archived footage from UW–Madison’s five AOSS rooftop cameras, which face west, northwest, north, east and south: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/WebCam.html YES — At least one UW–Madison rooftop camera records a visually identifiable aircraft-generated linear cloud in m…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market covers the fixed 9:00 AM–1:00 PM Central Time observation window over Madison, Wisconsin. Resolution will be based exclusively on archived footage from UW–Madison’s five AOSS rooftop cameras, which face west, northwest, north, east and south: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/WebCam.html YES — At least one UW–Madison rooftop camera records a visually identifiable aircraft-generated linear cloud in more than one timestamped frame. It may remain narrow or visibly widen, feather or spread. Lens reflections, camera artifacts and naturally formed clouds do not count. NO — No trail satisfies that requirement, provided at least three cameras each supply two cumulative hours of usable sky visibility during the four-hour window. Brief lines that quickly vanish do not qualify, and separate short-lived trails cannot be combined to reach 20 minutes. If technical failures or near-total cloud obstruction prevent the minimum usable-camera coverage, cancellation will be requested under Manifold’s rules. Betting closes at 8:55 AM CT, before the observation window begins. The footage will be audited after 1:00 PM, and the decisive timestamped evidence—or the negative audit result—will be posted with the resolution. The market creator may wager based on a separately published forecast. That forecast will not be reproduced or updated here before betting closes. Other bettors are responsible for their own research. Camera imagery: UW–Madison SSEC/AOS. [link preview]