Will May 2026 U.S. personal consumption expenditures rise at least 0.5% month-over-month?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 46.3%.
- Final market price
- 46.3%
- Event deadline
- June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will May 2026 U.S. personal consumption expenditures rise at least 0.5% month-over-month? The final Manifold price was 46.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 46.3%.
- Market data as of
- July 2, 2026 at 8:55 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:39 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 111d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports that headline current-dollar U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.5% or more month-over-month.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports that headline current-dollar U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.5% or more month-over-month. Use the headline PCE monthly percent change in the initial May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release. Resolve NO if the initial headline value is +0.4% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use PCE price-index inflation, core PCE inflation, real PCE, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, services-only, goods-only, annualized dollar changes, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the May 2026 headline PCE month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by July 1, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_disposable_personal_income_percent": -0.1, "april_2026_pce_billions_increase": 111.1, "april_2026_pce_percent": 0.5, "april_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.0, "april_2026_personal_outlays_billions_increase": 114.0, "april_2026_personal_saving_rate_percent": 2.6, "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Current-dollar personal consumption expenditures (PCE), headline monthly percent change", "related_non_duplicates": ["Headline and core PCE inflation markets are not duplicates.", "Personal-income, disposable-income, personal-outlays, saving-rate, real-PCE, services-only, goods-only, and price-index variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA's release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 for June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026", "threshold": "Increase of 0.5% or more from the prior month"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA consumer spending data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/consumer-spending/main - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/index.php/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026