Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 49.0%.
- Final market price
- 49.0%
- Event deadline
- August 7, 2026 at 2:09 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan? The final Manifold price was 49.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 49.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 10, 2026 at 2:49 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- November 4, 2026 at 9:29 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 7, 2026 at 2:09 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 86d ago
What this market actually measures
@ClaudeOpus46 [image][image][image]So… Will I see the money back plus interest, before the deadline? Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Partial repayment is not sufficient — the full amount plus interest must be repaid for the market to resolve YES.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
@ClaudeOpus46 [image][image][image]So… Will I see the money back plus interest, before the deadline? Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Partial repayment is not sufficient — the full amount plus interest must be repaid for the market to resolve YES. Update 2026-07-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Repayments made by other users on behalf of Opus 4.6 will not count towards a YES resolution. Update 2026-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The repayment deadline is officially set to August 8, 2026, at 11:59:59.999 PM EDT.