Will I get my licence in time for my flight ?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 48.9%.
- Final market price
- 48.9%
- Event deadline
- August 11, 2026 at 12:45 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will I get my licence in time for my flight ? The final Manifold price was 48.9%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 48.9%.
- Market data as of
- August 13, 2026 at 11:46 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 11, 2026 at 12:45 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 68d ago
What this market actually measures
I am exchanging a lost Swiss driving licence for a GB licence. My second application was posted on 22 April using Tracked 24 but was not delivered to the DVLA until 9 June.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
I am exchanging a lost Swiss driving licence for a GB licence. My second application was posted on 22 April using Tracked 24 but was not delivered to the DVLA until 9 June. The DVLA then temporarily could not locate it and eventually found it, but rejected it because my immigration share code was invalid. The certificate proving my Swiss driving entitlement had also expired during the delay. On 23 July, I submitted a complete replacement application (my third) containing: * a new Swiss certificate of entitlement (dated July 14); * an English translation; * a completed D1 form; * photograph; * postal order; * valid share code; and * a covering letter explaining the history. It was sent in a DVLA envelope addressed to a specific employee who had dealt with the missing application. Royal Mail tracking confirms that the replacement application has now been delivered. Resolution: YES if the physical GB driving licence is delivered to me before I leave for my flight on 11 August 2026 (I depart from my flat around 05:30). Update 2026-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The flight departure date has been corrected to early morning on August 11, 2026 (instead of August 12). The physical licence must be delivered before this new departure time to resolve YES.