Will my friend Matt quit his job?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 38.3%.
- Final market price
- 38.3%
- Event deadline
- October 9, 2026 at 6:21 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 38.3%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will my friend Matt quit his job? The final Manifold price was 38.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 38.3%.
- Market data as of
- October 6, 2026 at 2:53 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 6, 2026 at 2:59 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 9, 2026 at 6:21 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 6m ago
What this market actually measures
Context “My boss just asked me a complex question right before I’m supposed to clock out. Am I going to quit?Tanner set up a betting market for the group chat.” Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Matt voluntarily resigns, submits his official notice, or otherwise quits his current job.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Context “My boss just asked me a complex question right before I’m supposed to clock out. Am I going to quit?Tanner set up a betting market for the group chat.” Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Matt voluntarily resigns, submits his official notice, or otherwise quits his current job. This market resolves to NO if Matt remains employed at his current job through the target resolution date, or if his employment is terminated involuntarily (e.g., laid off or fired) without him initiating a resignation. Target Date: The creator should edit this description to specify a cutoff date. If no date is specified, this market will default to resolving on December 31, 2026, based on Matt's employment status at that time. Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined by Matt's official announcement or confirmation from the creator (Tanner) based on the group chat's consensus. Background After Matt's boss asked him a complex question right before he was scheduled to clock out, Matt questioned whether he was going to quit. Tanner set up this betting market for their group chat to predict whether Matt will actually leave his job. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ16.1
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ62.1
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 38.3%
- Resolves
- Oct 9, 2026