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ManifoldGeopoliticsUpdated 66d ago

Will England and Switzerland both finish first in their respective groups?

Final price
46.3%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 46.3%.

Final market price
46.3%
Event deadline
June 27, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will England and Switzerland both finish first in their respective groups? The final Manifold price was 46.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 46.3%.

Market data as of
June 30, 2026 at 4:02 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:02 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 27, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
66d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if both of the following conditions are met during the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup: England finishes in 1st place in Group L. Switzerland finishes in 1st place in Group B.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if both of the following conditions are met during the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup: England finishes in 1st place in Group L. Switzerland finishes in 1st place in Group B. If either team finishes in 2nd place or lower, the market will resolve to NO. Official final group standings will be verified using the FIFA Tournament Standings or, as a secondary source, the 2026 FIFA World Cup Wikipedia Page once the group stage concludes on June 27, 2026. Any official tie-breakers implemented by FIFA to determine the final group ranking will be respected. Background The 2026 FIFA World Cup features an expanded 48-team format divided into 12 groups of four: Group B (playing June 12–24, 2026) consists of Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, and Switzerland. Group L (playing June 17–27, 2026) consists of England, Croatia, Ghana, and Panama. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ71

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
46.3%
Resolves
Jun 27, 2026

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