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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 65d ago

Will May 2026 U.S. construction spending be at least $2.18T SAAR?

Final price
48.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 48.0%.

Final market price
48.0%
Event deadline
July 1, 2026 at 9:55 AM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will May 2026 U.S. construction spending be at least $2.18T SAAR? The final Manifold price was 48.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 48.0%.

Market data as of
July 2, 2026 at 8:55 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
July 1, 2026 at 9:55 AM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
65d ago

What this market actually measures

This market resolves YES if the initial U.S. Census Bureau Construction Spending release for May 2026 reports total construction spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of at least $2,180.0 billion.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market resolves YES if the initial U.S. Census Bureau Construction Spending release for May 2026 reports total construction spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of at least $2,180.0 billion. Use the headline 'Total Construction' seasonally adjusted annual rate from the first May 2026 Construction Spending / Value of Construction Put in Place release. A value of $2,180.0 billion or higher resolves YES. $2,179.9 billion or lower resolves NO. Do not use private-only, public-only, residential-only, nonresidential-only, state/local subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted spending, month-over-month percentage change, year-over-year percentage change, housing starts, building permits, construction input prices, annual totals, or later revisions unless Census corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 Construction Spending release is delayed, wait for the first Census release containing the May 2026 headline total construction SAAR value unless there is no such release by July 8, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_mom_percent": 0.4, "april_2026_total_saar_billions": 2172.4, "april_2026_yoy_percent": 0.9, "march_2026_revised_total_saar_billions": 2164.5, "release": "Monthly Construction Spending, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-06-01"}, "metric": "Total Construction, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "related_non_duplicates": ["Construction-spending month-over-month percentage-change markets are not duplicates.", "Private-only, public-only, residential-only, nonresidential-only, construction-input-price, and housing-starts/building-permits markets are not duplicates.", "Later-revision and annualized-dollar-spent year-to-date variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "Census construction-spending schedule/list-view calendar lists May 2026 Construction Spending for July 1, 2026 at 10:00 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Census Construction Spending release for May 2026", "threshold": "$2,180.0 billion SAAR or more"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census current Construction Spending release: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/current/index.html - Census Construction Spending release schedule: https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/release.html - Census economic indicators list-view calendar: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - FRED TTLCONS mirror: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TTLCONS

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ0

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
48.0%
Resolves
Jul 1, 2026

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