Will Anthropic release a non-Fable model before Fable is rereleased?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 43.6%.
- Final market price
- 43.6%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 5:34 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 43.6%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 43.6%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Anthropic release a non-Fable model before Fable is rereleased? The final Manifold price was 43.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 43.6%.
- Market data as of
- July 1, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 5:34 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 66d ago
What this market actually measures
As of 2026/06/17, Anthropic's current generation of publicly released models were Claude Opus 4.8, Claude Sonnet 4.6, and Claude Haiku 4.5 with Claude Fable 5 being temporarily unavailable? Will Anthropic publicly release a non-Fable model before Fable is publicly available again?
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
As of 2026/06/17, Anthropic's current generation of publicly released models were Claude Opus 4.8, Claude Sonnet 4.6, and Claude Haiku 4.5 with Claude Fable 5 being temporarily unavailable? Will Anthropic publicly release a non-Fable model before Fable is publicly available again? By publicly available, I mean something that an American can access just by spending money. If Fable and a non-Fable are made available simultaneously, I will resolve this to 50%. A Fable other than Fable 5 will count as a Fable release. Update 2026-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding rebranded models: if Fable 5 is rereleased under a different name, it will be counted as a Fable release (resolves NO). If a future model like Opus 5.1 is Fable-level but appears to be a distinct model, it will count as a non-Fable release (resolves YES). Edge cases may be resolved via poll or N/A.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ154
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ8.6K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 43.6%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026