Markets priced 30–40%
The individual resolved markets behind this bucket of the calibration curve. “Priced” is what the market showed 24 hours before its deadline — a real forecast, not the settlement price.
80 markets · 33 resolved YES (41%)
- Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 4, 2026?Polymarket · Sep 4, 2026priced 38.6%YES✗
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?Polymarket · Sep 4, 2026priced 38.5%YES✗
- will codex get me some moneroManifold · Sep 3, 2026priced 33.6%NO✓
- will i get lost on my first day of schoolManifold · Sep 2, 2026priced 36.3%NO✓
- Will my brother‘s friend be annoying to me tomorrow?Manifold · Aug 28, 2026priced 34.0%NO✓
- Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Polymarket · Aug 25, 2026priced 32.5%NO✓
- 🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Will the U.S. sanction a Chinese entity over ties to Iran by August 24, 2026?Manifold · Aug 24, 2026priced 37.4%YES✗
- Will DeepSeek update DeepSeek v4 before OctoberManifold · Aug 21, 2026priced 33.8%YES✗
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 21, 2026priced 39.8%YES✗
- Manifold Markets created: I'm currently #104. Will I rank #96 in markets I've created by August 26, 2026? (8/26/26)Manifold · Aug 20, 2026priced 36.4%YES✗
- Will I bother calling the suicide hotline this time?Manifold · Aug 19, 2026priced 36.1%NO✓
- Will Jared Moskowitz get 65.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 25 Democratic house primary?Manifold · Aug 19, 2026priced 30.0%NO✓
- S&P 500 closes above $7,800 on August 14?Manifold · Aug 15, 2026priced 34.3%NO✓
- Will I eat a banana today?Manifold · Aug 15, 2026priced 30.2%YES✗
- S&P 500 closes above $7,800 at end of week?Manifold · Aug 14, 2026priced 33.0%NO✓
- Will any of these high profile people offically endorse Francesca Hong?Manifold · Aug 12, 2026priced 37.2%NO✓
- Will more than 5 bots trade on this market?Manifold · Aug 10, 2026priced 34.3%NO✓
- Will BARACK OBAMA endorse or congratulate Abdul el Sayed before end of Friday?Manifold · Aug 10, 2026priced 34.0%NO✓
- Will any player from France *or* playing as a French civilization *surrender*/resign early in AOE2 regicide Rumble 7?Manifold · Aug 9, 2026priced 39.5%NO✓
- WILL Margougou win regicide rumble 7?Manifold · Aug 9, 2026priced 39.0%YES✗
- "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" breaks the record for the biggest opening weekend of all time?Manifold · Aug 4, 2026priced 39.0%YES✗
- Will Bitcoin (BTC-USD) close above $65,000 on July 31, 2026?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 33.8%NO✓
- Will the San Diego County Fair 2026 official website list total attendance ≥ 888,888?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 39.1%NO✓
- Will I destroy my keyboard?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 36.5%NO✓
- Will the DJIA go below 50,000 by August 1 (8/1/26)?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 37.2%NO✓
- ¿Se anularán o suspenderán definitivamente las elecciones de la FUSM 2026?Manifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 30.5%NO✓
- Will Claude Fable 5 be accessible in a subscription on July 31 2026?Manifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 33.0%YES✗
- Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?Manifold · Jul 29, 2026priced 38.5%NO✓
- July 26 (7/26/26) Will I be below 300 lbs. at my morning weigh-in? 314.2 today.Manifold · Jul 26, 2026priced 30.8%NO✓
- Chasing Yellow Categoria B: o Liberato fica à frente do Valente na GC?Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 37.4%NO✓
- Brazil Election 2026: Will Michelle Bolsonaro attend in person the PL convention that nominates Flávio for president?Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 39.9%NO✓
- Will the price of Brent crude oil reach $100 by end of July 30?Manifold · Jul 24, 2026priced 31.4%YES✗
- Will I will Nash Pit (episode two)?Manifold · Jul 20, 2026priced 30.8%NO✓
- Got a brand new bed yesterday. Will I have to make a warranty claim by July 17, 2026 (7/17/26)?Manifold · Jul 19, 2026priced 30.1%NO✓
- will Darren go on one date per day between July 3rd to July 6th.Manifold · Jul 17, 2026priced 36.0%NO✓
- Will Trump’s 9pm address “shock” me? [SHORT FUSE]Manifold · Jul 17, 2026priced 30.1%NO✓
- Will my Friday haircut reservation be canceled?Manifold · Jul 15, 2026priced 30.3%YES✗
- Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?Manifold · Jul 14, 2026priced 32.0%YES✗
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Polymarket · Jul 14, 2026priced 31.1%YES✗
- Will CPI rise more than -0.2% in June 2026?Kalshi · Jul 14, 2026priced 35.0%NO✓
- Will the US reimpose a blockade on Iran by the end of July 2026?Manifold · Jul 13, 2026priced 35.8%YES✗
- Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in June 2026?Manifold · Jul 13, 2026priced 33.7%NO✓
- It is more likely that Islam is true than Christianity [Convince the Machine #18]Manifold · Jul 12, 2026priced 33.4%NO✓
- Will Erling Haaland score at least 1 goal in normal time against England?Manifold · Jul 11, 2026priced 35.0%NO✓
- Will Silver hit $65 an ounce by close of market Friday?Manifold · Jul 10, 2026priced 33.9%NO✓
- Will Lamine Yamal score 1 or more goals in normal time against Belgium?Manifold · Jul 10, 2026priced 37.1%NO✓
- Will there be a forest fire caused by firework/celebration on July 4th in United States?Manifold · Jul 7, 2026priced 36.0%YES✗
- Do you like 34% odds?Manifold · Jul 6, 2026priced 33.9%YES✗
- Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in June 2026?Manifold · Jul 5, 2026priced 36.8%YES✗
- Pokemon Mega Ev Ascended Heroes: Will we unpack a card worth >$8.99 raw at Manifest (2 packs) [+Prizes]Manifold · Jul 4, 2026priced 33.5%NO✓
- ⚽ Will Colombia beat Ghana by 2 or more goals in regulation?Manifold · Jul 4, 2026priced 31.3%NO✓
- Will Portugal beat Croatia by 2 or more goals?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 37.2%NO✓
- Will the June 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.4%?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 34.2%NO✓
- WIIL I get first of my bronze league this week? 🩶Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 31.4%YES✗
- Will I finish this season in 3rd place in the Gold division?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 38.3%YES✗
- Will Kiros, Weiser, and Gonzales all win Denver County in the primaries on July 1?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 35.0%YES✗
- Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 6?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 38.2%YES✗
- Will the May 2026 U.S. advance goods trade deficit be at least $85B?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 35.1%YES✗
- Will typical Americans be able to use GPT-5.6 Sol before Fable 5 again?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 31.8%NO✓
- Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 39.9%YES✗
- Will June in Boston 2026 be one of the top 3 warmest Junes ever?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 33.5%NO✓
- Do you like 38% odds?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 37.9%YES✗
- Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?Manifold · Jun 29, 2026priced 38.8%NO✓
- Will the Dodgers sweep the Padres this weekend, OR will the series produce 30 combined runs?Manifold · Jun 28, 2026priced 35.6%YES✗
- Начнётся ли набор на должности модераторов / администраторов в течение недели?Manifold · Jun 27, 2026priced 33.4%NO✓
- Will I increase the number of pull ups I can do by 50%+ by 25th June?Manifold · Jun 26, 2026priced 37.0%NO✓
- Will NWS issue a new Beach Hazards Statement for the San Francisco Peninsula Coast between June 21 and June 26, 2026Manifold · Jun 26, 2026priced 34.3%YES✗
- Updated my profile because a user saw a problem with my N/A. Will I do it again by 7/26/26 because of a user's comments?Manifold · Jun 26, 2026priced 37.3%YES✗
- Will Claude Fable 5 be a accessible in a Claude max 20x subscription on June 23 2026?Manifold · Jun 25, 2026priced 33.0%NO✓
- This market resolves to whatever the comments convince me to resolve it toManifold · Jun 24, 2026priced 35.1%NO✓
- Will silver hit $60/ oz by close on Friday?Manifold · Jun 24, 2026priced 38.0%YES✗
- Will Adam Chase or Ben Doyle endorse Alex Bores for Congress?Manifold · Jun 23, 2026priced 31.1%NO✓
- Mamdani endorsements for house Clean Sweep?Manifold · Jun 23, 2026priced 30.0%YES✗
- Will my account be restricted or removed by Monday, June 22?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 30.9%NO✓
- Will there be more than 4 mass shootings in America this weekend?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 37.6%YES✗
- [Short Fuse] Will Anthropi reset Max users' limit in the next 7 days?Manifold · Jun 13, 2026priced 33.5%YES✗
- Will I meet a trader on this market at Manifest 2026?Manifold · Jun 12, 2026priced 32.9%YES✗
- Cats: The Jellicle Ball wins 2026 Tony Award for Best Revival of a MusicalManifold · Jun 7, 2026priced 38.9%NO✓
- Will there be rain during the Monaco GP?Manifold · Jun 8, 2026priced 36.3%NO✓
- Will at least 3 MOP 2026 staff members say "hi jat" to me on June 7th?Manifold · Jun 8, 2026priced 32.8%NO✓
Shows up to the 200 most recent graded outcomes in this range. ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.