Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 26.5%
- Event deadline
- August 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Venue status
- open
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? The last traded Polymarket probability before the deadline was 26.5%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- August 11, 2026 at 11:38 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- August 11, 2026 at 11:48 PM ET
- Source
- Polymarket
- Event deadline
- August 10, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 9m ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the special Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina, including any potential runoff. If no 2026 special South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the candidate who is the official Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election. If the results of the special primary are not definitively known, or if there is no Republican nominee to contest the November 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate election, by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.