ManifoldGeopoliticsUpdated 50d ago
Will the US reimpose a blockade on Iran by the end of July 2026?
Final price
35.8%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 35.8%.
- Final market price
- 35.8%
- Event deadline
- August 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 35.8%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 35.8%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the US reimpose a blockade on Iran by the end of July 2026? The final Manifold price was 35.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 35.8%.
- Market data as of
- July 17, 2026 at 9:37 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:02 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 50d ago
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ556.4
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ1.5K
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 35.8%
- Resolves
- Aug 1, 2026
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