Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in June 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 33.7%.
- Final market price
- 33.7%
- Event deadline
- July 3, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will US unemployment be 4.4% or higher in June 2026? The final Manifold price was 33.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 33.7%.
- Market data as of
- July 16, 2026 at 11:19 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 3, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 96d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the seasonally-adjusted headline (U-3) unemployment rate in the BLS Employment Situation report for June 2026 is 4.4% or higher. Resolves NO if it is 4.3% or lower.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the seasonally-adjusted headline (U-3) unemployment rate in the BLS Employment Situation report for June 2026 is 4.4% or higher. Resolves NO if it is 4.3% or lower. Oracle: BLS Employment Situation, June 2026 edition (scheduled release Friday, July 3, 2026, 8:30am ET) — https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm Context: The May 2026 rate was 4.3%, and the rate has held in a narrow 4.3%–4.5% band since July 2025. May payrolls beat expectations (+172k vs +85k est), but U-6 underutilization sits at 8.1%. The question is whether June ticks up off the bottom of the band. Resolves to the rate as initially reported (not later revisions). If the report is delayed (e.g. government shutdown), resolution waits for the official release.