Will there be more than 4 mass shootings in America this weekend?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 91.0%.
- Final market price
- 91.0%
- Event deadline
- June 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will there be more than 4 mass shootings in America this weekend? The final Manifold price was 91.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 91.0%.
- Market data as of
- June 16, 2026 at 4:57 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 15, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 127d ago
What this market actually measures
As defined by the Gun Violence Archive, will there be more than 4 mass shootings within the USA between June 12th and 14th? A mass shooting is defined by GVA as an incident in which 4 or more individuals are shot, fatally or non fatally.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
As defined by the Gun Violence Archive, will there be more than 4 mass shootings within the USA between June 12th and 14th? A mass shooting is defined by GVA as an incident in which 4 or more individuals are shot, fatally or non fatally. This includes shooting victims that were themselves shooters, and does not exclude gang violence. The data will be taken from the GVA database and includes all day on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. I will allow 12 hours after midnight on Sunday for any late updates to the database before resolving.