Will DeepSeek update DeepSeek v4 before October
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Final market price
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- August 21, 2026 at 9:29 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will DeepSeek update DeepSeek v4 before October The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 24, 2026 at 9:41 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 5, 2026 at 7:33 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 21, 2026 at 9:29 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 41d ago
What this market actually measures
After the release of DeepSeek v4 flash/pro, DeepSeek released DeepSeek v4 Flash 0731 and DeepSeek Pro 0813 as updates. Will DeepSeek release another update to the Flash model or Pro model before October?
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
After the release of DeepSeek v4 flash/pro, DeepSeek released DeepSeek v4 Flash 0731 and DeepSeek Pro 0813 as updates. Will DeepSeek release another update to the Flash model or Pro model before October? DeepSeek v5 Flash would not count, and an entirely new model like DeepSeek v4 lite would also not count. The model has to be in the v4 family and have the name "flash" or "pro". A model like DeepSeek v4.1 Flash or DeepSeek v4 Flash 0903 would count, though. Resolution source: https://api-docs.deepseek.com/updates/ [link preview]
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ250
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ1K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 99.0%
- Resolves
- Aug 21, 2026