Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in Q3 2026?
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 34.1%
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Berkshire Hathaway outperform S&P 500 in Q3 2026? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 34.1%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- September 30, 2026 at 8:12 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 30, 2026 at 9:12 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 1h ago
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve Yes if BRKB outperforms SPX in Q3 2026. This is a comparison of price returns only, not total return, but adjustment would be made to allow for splits.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve Yes if BRKB outperforms SPX in Q3 2026. This is a comparison of price returns only, not total return, but adjustment would be made to allow for splits. The primary resolution source will be finance.yahoo.com, using Close prices from the last trading day of June to the last trading day of September. Other sources may also be considered, for example if the primary source is unavailable or has a manifest error in the relevant figures. I may bet on this market.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ10
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ340.4
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 34.1%
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026