Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in June 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 36.8%.
- Final market price
- 36.8%
- Event deadline
- July 2, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in June 2026? The final Manifold price was 36.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 36.8%.
- Market data as of
- July 8, 2026 at 9:23 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 22, 2026 at 6:01 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 2, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 106d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves based on the analysis of Black Bird group - typically published at their X account (xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup). Here is their assessment as of May 2026 (from https://xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2062585511340916856): [image]For context some analysts like Mike Kofman (e.g.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves based on the analysis of Black Bird group - typically published at their X account (xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup). Here is their assessment as of May 2026 (from https://xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2062585511340916856): [image]For context some analysts like Mike Kofman (e.g. in https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-long-game-with-jake-sullivan-and-jon-finer/id1850526014?i=1000771130026) believe that Ukraine has gained initiative on the battlefield and is likely to keep it for the next few months. If the group does not publish a new assessment following the same methodology by August 1st, this resolves NA.