ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?33%▲14.2Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?14%▼14.3Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?37%▼7.8Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz get 60.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 20 Democratic house primary?30%▼20.0Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?5%▼1.9Rubio officially becomes viceroy of Venezuela before 203028%▼21.9Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?3%▼17.3"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide)64%▼22.0Will Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?12%▼25.7Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?9%▼2.5Will Jared Moskowitz get 65.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 25 Democratic house primary?39%▼11.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?8%▼5.0Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?38%▲1.5Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 4am EDT?36%▲15.0Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?76%▲52.4Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?25%▼3.0
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?33%▲14.2Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?14%▼14.3Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?37%▼7.8Will Debbie Wasserman Schultz get 60.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 20 Democratic house primary?30%▼20.0Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?5%▼1.9Rubio officially becomes viceroy of Venezuela before 203028%▼21.9Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?3%▼17.3"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" passes "Avatar: The Way of Water"? (>2.3B worldwide)64%▼22.0Will Google release "Gemini 3.5 Pro" to the public before October 1, 2026?12%▼25.7Will Team Spirit Win The International 2026?9%▼2.5Will Jared Moskowitz get 65.00% or more of the vote in the Florida 25 Democratic house primary?39%▼11.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?8%▼5.0Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?38%▲1.5Ethereum price at Aug 16, 2026 at 4am EDT?36%▲15.0Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?76%▲52.4Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?25%▼3.0
Home/Geopolitics/Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 13m ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Market probability
83.5%
−0.5 percentage points
over 24 hours84.0% → 83.5%
45 days until the qualification deadline
Latest eligible start date: September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The market can resolve after this date while a qualifying period defined in the rules completes.

Confirmed repricing; the market is settling at the new level.

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Strong

The pricing is supported by healthy trading volume and market depth.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (0.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$76.9K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.

What could move this market next?

  • The latest eligible start date passesSeptember 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    After this date, no new qualifying period can begin under the rules.

  • Completion of the qualifying period defined in the rules

    Resolution follows once the defined period finishes without a disqualifying event.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 16, 3:44 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Probability by deadline

The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.

  • By Aug 1599.9%
  • By Aug 3193.5%
  • By Sep 30 (this market)83.5%

Extending the deadline from Aug 31 to Sep 30 removes about 10.0 percentage points of implied probability.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: high · expected error ±15 pts.

Trading normallyLegacy movement classifier: meaningful

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Trading normally

Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.

Change (pts)1H+0.56H-0.524H-0.57D-0.5
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

66/ 100 · Medium

Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: limited history.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement25

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity73

Related markets

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?

100%YESTrust 70
Polymarket$283K 24h

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?

94%YESTrust 82
Polymarket$226.1K 24h

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

14%YESTrust 68
ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Liquid, two-sided, and calm — price behaving as settled consensus

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
31Low
Where the price path tends to go next286 observed
  • Stable consensus94%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting5%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityStable

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$53.5K

Liquidity

$38K

Total volume

$150.5K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
3.0 pts
Best bid
82.0%
Best ask
85.0%
7-day range
82.5% – 84.0%
Resolves
Sep 30, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

66/100 · Medium

Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: limited history.

  • Liquidity anchor+51
  • Price steadiness+23
  • Limited history-8
Trust score66 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Polymarket

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

Polymarket$38.9K 24h

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

3%YESTrust 67
Polymarket$30.5K 24h

Will Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in September 2026?

36%YESTrust 2
ManifoldṀ0 24h

Will GPT 6 be released by September 15th?

50%YESTrust 6
ManifoldṀ0 24h
Macro / Fed
Politics
AI / Tech
Geopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]