ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechUpdated 3d ago

Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?

Last traded probability
18.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Price historyManifold

Not enough price history for this range yet.

Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)

Awaiting resolution

The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Last probability before deadline
18.0%
Event deadline
October 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Venue status
closed

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 18.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.

Market data as of
October 16, 2026 at 1:41 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
October 19, 2026 at 7:14 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
October 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
Market status
Awaiting resolution
Data updated
3d ago

What this market actually measures

Levent Alpöge (Harvard), working with Claude, circulated a ~108-page PDF claiming a construction of an integrable complex structure on S⁶ — the Hopf problem, open since 1947. As of market creation the paper is circulating as a PDF outside arXiv; his most recent arXiv submission is "More than two thirds of the zeta zeros are simple and on the critical line" (2026-08-13), and his July 2026 Jacobian-conjecture counterex…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Levent Alpöge (Harvard), working with Claude, circulated a ~108-page PDF claiming a construction of an integrable complex structure on S⁶ — the Hopf problem, open since 1947. As of market creation the paper is circulating as a PDF outside arXiv; his most recent arXiv submission is "More than two thirds of the zeta zeros are simple and on the critical line" (2026-08-13), and his July 2026 Jacobian-conjecture counterexample is not on arXiv either. This market is about the posting, not the correctness. Resolves YES if, at any time from market creation through 2026-10-15, 23:59 ET, arxiv.org lists a preprint (any version, any primary category) with Levent Alpöge as an author whose subject is the existence of a complex / integrable complex structure on the 6-sphere. Resolves NO otherwise — including if the paper only ever circulates as a personal-website or social-media PDF, is submitted to a journal without an arXiv posting, is withdrawn, or appears on arXiv without Alpöge as an author. Oracle: the arXiv listing itself — https://arxiv.org/a/alpoge_l_1 and arXiv full-text search. A cross-listing or replacement counts; an announcement of intent to post does not. Timestamp used is arXiv's own submission date. Correctness of the proof is explicitly out of scope. A paper that is posted and later refuted still resolves this YES.

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