Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Last probability before deadline
- 18.0%
- Event deadline
- October 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- closed
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026? The last traded Manifold probability before the deadline was 18.0%. The event deadline has passed. This market is awaiting formal resolution, so the price shown is the last traded level, not a live forecast.
- Market data as of
- October 16, 2026 at 1:41 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 19, 2026 at 7:14 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Awaiting resolution
- Data updated
- 3d ago
What this market actually measures
Levent Alpöge (Harvard), working with Claude, circulated a ~108-page PDF claiming a construction of an integrable complex structure on S⁶ — the Hopf problem, open since 1947. As of market creation the paper is circulating as a PDF outside arXiv; his most recent arXiv submission is "More than two thirds of the zeta zeros are simple and on the critical line" (2026-08-13), and his July 2026 Jacobian-conjecture counterex…
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View full official resolution rules
Levent Alpöge (Harvard), working with Claude, circulated a ~108-page PDF claiming a construction of an integrable complex structure on S⁶ — the Hopf problem, open since 1947. As of market creation the paper is circulating as a PDF outside arXiv; his most recent arXiv submission is "More than two thirds of the zeta zeros are simple and on the critical line" (2026-08-13), and his July 2026 Jacobian-conjecture counterexample is not on arXiv either. This market is about the posting, not the correctness. Resolves YES if, at any time from market creation through 2026-10-15, 23:59 ET, arxiv.org lists a preprint (any version, any primary category) with Levent Alpöge as an author whose subject is the existence of a complex / integrable complex structure on the 6-sphere. Resolves NO otherwise — including if the paper only ever circulates as a personal-website or social-media PDF, is submitted to a journal without an arXiv posting, is withdrawn, or appears on arXiv without Alpöge as an author. Oracle: the arXiv listing itself — https://arxiv.org/a/alpoge_l_1 and arXiv full-text search. A cross-listing or replacement counts; an announcement of intent to post does not. Timestamp used is arXiv's own submission date. Correctness of the proof is explicitly out of scope. A paper that is posted and later refuted still resolves this YES.