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Currently 50% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a meaningful, liquidity-backed move (Trust 71/100).
Moved down 0.5 pts over 24h — reads as a meaningful repricing.
Liquid, two-sided, and calm. The current price reads as settled consensus — the latest print is a reasonable summary of what the market believes.
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolution Risk.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Only Polymarket has this matched event in the current feed
Depth of the order book and volume
Reasonably supported. Generally reliable, with minor caveats. Main caveat: limited history.
Low resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution source.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.