Will there be a forest fire caused by firework/celebration on July 4th in United States?
Final price
36.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Price historyManifold
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
Resolved NO
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 36.0%.
- Final market price
- 36.0%
- Event deadline
- July 5, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will there be a forest fire caused by firework/celebration on July 4th in United States? The final Manifold price was 36.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 36.0%.
- Market data as of
- July 11, 2026 at 8:18 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 5, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 101d ago