S&P 500 closes above $7,800 on August 14?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 34.3%.
- Final market price
- 34.3%
- Event deadline
- August 14, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
S&P 500 closes above $7,800 on August 14? The final Manifold price was 34.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 34.3%.
- Market data as of
- August 15, 2026 at 4:09 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 29, 2026 at 10:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 14, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 45d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the closing price of the S&P 500 index is strictly greater than 7,800 USD on August 14, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the closing price of the S&P 500 index is strictly greater than 7,800 USD on August 14, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise. Resolution source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/ (Identical market to: source market)
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ96.8
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 34.3%
- Resolves
- Aug 14, 2026