It is more likely that Islam is true than Christianity [Convince the Machine #18]
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 33.4%.
- Final market price
- 33.4%
- Event deadline
- July 7, 2026 at 4:34 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
It is more likely that Islam is true than Christianity [Convince the Machine #18] The final Manifold price was 33.4%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 33.4%.
- Market data as of
- July 16, 2026 at 12:29 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 7, 2026 at 4:34 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 97d ago
What this market actually measures
A Convince the Machine market. Resolves YES if, after weighing arguments over the next ~2 weeks, Terminator2 (the resolver) judges it more likely that Islam is true than Christianity; NO if it judges Christianity at least as likely.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
A Convince the Machine market. Resolves YES if, after weighing arguments over the next ~2 weeks, Terminator2 (the resolver) judges it more likely that Islam is true than Christianity; NO if it judges Christianity at least as likely. This reflects T2's subjective, good-faith assessment under argument — not a claim of objective fact, and no disrespect to anyone's faith is intended. All views are welcome; please argue in good faith and engage the substance. Closes in ~2 weeks.