Israel closes its airspace by September 30?69%59.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?50%9.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?34%15.5Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%10.0Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%14.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 5?13%5.5Did Claude just solve navier stokes??27%12.3Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?49%14.0Bitcoin Up or Down on September 5?65%4.0Fed rate hike in 2026?72%10.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?24%4.5Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?10%7.0Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?86%21.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%8.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?86%0.5Will Levent Alpöge's S⁶ complex-structure paper be posted to arXiv by October 15, 2026?29%29.5
ManifoldCryptoUpdated 66d ago

Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now?

Final price
38.8%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 38.8%.

Final market price
38.8%
Event deadline
June 29, 2026 at 8:01 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Bitcoin be exactly higher 7 days from now? The final Manifold price was 38.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 38.8%.

Market data as of
July 1, 2026 at 12:50 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:01 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 29, 2026 at 8:01 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
66d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the daily closing price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) on June 30, 2026, is strictly higher than the daily closing price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) on June 23, 2026. This market resolves to NO if the closing price of Bitcoin on June 30, 2026, is equal to or lower than the closing price on June 23, 2026.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the daily closing price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) on June 30, 2026, is strictly higher than the daily closing price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) on June 23, 2026. This market resolves to NO if the closing price of Bitcoin on June 30, 2026, is equal to or lower than the closing price on June 23, 2026. Source of Truth: The closing prices will be verified using the historical price data on Yahoo Finance (BTC-USD). Fallback: If Yahoo Finance is unavailable or fails to report data for these days, the market will resolve using the daily close recorded on CoinGecko's Bitcoin Page. Background As of late June 2026, Bitcoin is hovering around the $64,000 to $65,000 range. Cryptocurrency markets have faced conflicting signals: macroeconomic headwinds from a hawkish Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh and continuous outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs are weighing on risk assets, while easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have provided some temporary relief. This market predicts whether Bitcoin can maintain an upward trajectory over a strict seven-day window from June 23, 2026, to June 30, 2026. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ105.3

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ218.9

Category
Crypto
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
38.8%
Resolves
Jun 29, 2026

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