Will there be rain during the Monaco GP?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.3%.
- Final market price
- 1.3%
- Event deadline
- June 13, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 1.3%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will there be rain during the Monaco GP? The final Manifold price was 1.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.3%.
- Market data as of
- June 10, 2026 at 6:46 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 5, 2026 at 1:03 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 13, 2026 at 2:30 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 86d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if there is rainfall on any part of the Circuit de Monaco during the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix main race on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Specifically, this is defined as: Any moisture or rain falling from the sky onto the track during the race (from the start of the formation lap until the checkered flag or official race termination).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if there is rainfall on any part of the Circuit de Monaco during the 2026 Monaco Grand Prix main race on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Specifically, this is defined as: Any moisture or rain falling from the sky onto the track during the race (from the start of the formation lap until the checkered flag or official race termination). Any driver fitting intermediate (green-banded) or full wet (blue-banded) tires during the race due to track conditions. The FIA officially declaring the track wet or starting/suspending the session due to rain. The market resolves to NO if the race runs from start to finish entirely in dry conditions with no rain falling on the circuit. Sources for verification: Official FIA Formula 1 documents and session reports (available at fia.com) Official Formula 1 live timing and lap charts (available at formula1.com) Reliable motorsport publications (e.g., Motorsport.com or Sky Sports F1) Note: If the Grand Prix is postponed to a later date in 2026, the market will remain open and resolve based on the rescheduled race. If the race is canceled completely and not run at all, this market will resolve to N/A. Background The 2026 Monaco Grand Prix takes place from June 5 to June 7, 2026. The event was shifted to early June as part of F1's calendar regionalization and sustainability efforts. Rain at Monaco dramatically shifts race dynamics due to the circuit's tight, barrier-lined streets where there is virtually zero margin for error. Slippery conditions make contact with the barriers highly punishing, as seen during the last wet race in 2022. Current weather forecasts for the 2026 race weekend suggest very warm, stable, and mostly sunny conditions with a low probability of precipitation. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ862.6
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ1.1K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 1.3%
- Resolves
- Jun 13, 2026