ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDevelopingUpdated 12m ago

Will GradientGray release a new video before the end of this week?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 12:34 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 43.0% (down from 45.3% 24 hours earlier). It had 28.3 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
43.0%
−2.3 percentage points
over 24 hours45.3% → 43.0%
Resolving soon

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

28.3 mana

Total volume

28.3 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts
39%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

5

Trades

6

over 10h

Largest order

10 mana

25.9 mana traded across these 6 trades (last 10h).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$25.9 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 25, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 12:47 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
8Low
Where the price path tends to go next595 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet97%
  • Thin-liquidity spike1%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~12h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-2.324H-2.37D-2.3

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