Will the June 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.4%?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 34.2%.
- Final market price
- 34.2%
- Event deadline
- July 2, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will the June 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be at least 4.4%? The final Manifold price was 34.2%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 34.2%.
- Market data as of
- July 4, 2026 at 6:38 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 2, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 109d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for June 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.4 percent, seasonally adjusted. Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for June 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for June 2026 reports an official U-3 unemployment rate of at least 4.4 percent, seasonally adjusted. Use the household-survey U-3 unemployment rate for June 2026 from the first BLS Employment Situation release. A value of 4.4% or higher resolves YES. A value of 4.3% or lower resolves NO. Do not use total nonfarm payroll employment, household employment level, labor-force participation, U-6, metro-area or state unemployment rates, demographic subseries, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial June 2026 release before resolution. If the June 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the June 2026 U-3 unemployment rate unless there is no such release by July 9, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"may_2026_total_nonfarm_payroll_change": 172000, "may_2026_unemployment_rate": 4.3, "release": "The Employment Situation, May 2026", "release_date": "2026-06-05"}, "metric": "U-3 official unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, household survey", "related_non_duplicates": ["June 2026 nonfarm-payroll-change markets are not duplicates.", "May 2026 unemployment-rate markets are not duplicates.", "Metro-area, state, demographic, U-6, labor-force-participation, and forecast-consensus markets are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BLS July 2026 schedule lists Employment Situation for June 2026 on 2026-07-02 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for June 2026", "source_fetch_caveat": "Official BLS pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation; BLS pages can return HTTP 403 to raw Python urllib from this host.", "threshold": "4.4 percent or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS July 2026 selected release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/07_sched_list.htm - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS May 2026 Employment Situation archive: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_06052026.htm - BLS CPS latest numbers: https://www.bls.gov/cps/latest-numbers.htm