ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechUpdated 111d ago

Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time?

Final price
99.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Price historyManifold

Not enough price history for this range yet.

Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)

Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.

Final market price
99.0%
Event deadline
December 31, 2026 at 2:24 PM ET
Probability 24 hours before event deadline
99.0%
Probability seven days before event deadline
99.0%
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Fable 5 be reenabled for Everyone at the same time? The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.

Market data as of
July 2, 2026 at 3:25 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
December 31, 2026 at 2:24 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
111d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, upon its return to public availability, access to Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 model (or its direct successor/replacement branded as Fable) is officially restored for both US-based users and international/non-US users (foreign nationals) at the same time. For the purposes of this market: "At the same time" is defined as within the same 24-hour window, or as part o…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, upon its return to public availability, access to Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 model (or its direct successor/replacement branded as Fable) is officially restored for both US-based users and international/non-US users (foreign nationals) at the same time. For the purposes of this market: "At the same time" is defined as within the same 24-hour window, or as part of the same public rollout/announcement. "Restored access" means the model is made officially available for general use through at least one official channel (e.g., Claude Web/App, Anthropic API, Claude Code) to paying customers or subscription tiers in the respective regions. Unofficial workarounds (e.g., VPNs, leaks, third-party proxies) do not count. This market will resolve to NO if: Access is reenabled for one group (e.g., US-based users) but remains restricted or blocked for another group (e.g., non-US users/foreign nationals) at the initial return, establishing a staggered rollout or a permanent geoblock/nationality gate. Anthropic requires nationality verification (such as passport checks or KYC) that restricts access to US persons only while foreign nationals remain blocked. Fable 5 (or a direct successor) is not officially reenabled for either group by December 31, 2026. Source of Truth: Resolves based on official announcements from Anthropic's news site (https://www.anthropic.com/news), their status page, or verified reporting by reputable technology news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, TechCrunch, Axios). Background On June 9, 2026, Anthropic launched Claude Fable 5, its first public "Mythos-class" model, featuring advanced reasoning capabilities alongside strict internal safeguards. Three days later, on June 12, 2026, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued an export control directive ordering the suspension of all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, citing national security concerns over potential guardrail bypasses. Because Anthropic did not possess a nationality verification system, the company complied by disabling the models globally for all customers, including those within the United States. This market tracks whether the model's eventual return will be a unified global release or a staggered, regionally-gated rollout designed to satisfy U.S. export controls. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output. [link preview]

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