Will MOUZ Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth. The probability moved another 8.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 8.5 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market will resolve according to the winner of BLAST Open Porto 2026, currently scheduled for August 26, 2026 to September 6, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name …
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of BLAST Open Porto 2026, currently scheduled for August 26, 2026 to September 6, 2026. If this tournament is postponed after September 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple teams are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, BLAST; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 8.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (26.5% → 35.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeOctober 5, 2026 at 2:55 PM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 5, 3:00 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: medium · expected error ±24 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 8.5 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
- Flow one-directional across 62 participants (broad, not a single order)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Trend continuation30%
- Stable consensus23%
- News repricing23%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Trending.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$71.2K
Liquidity
$47.3K
Total volume
$94.9K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Polymarket
- Open interest
- —
- Spread
- 4.0 pts
- Best bid
- 33.0%
- Best ask
- 37.0%
- 7-day range
- 20.0% – 35.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 5, 2026