🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Will the U.S. sanction a Chinese entity over ties to Iran by August 24, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 75.0%.
- Final market price
- 75.0%
- Event deadline
- August 24, 2026 at 2:57 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Will the U.S. sanction a Chinese entity over ties to Iran by August 24, 2026? The final Manifold price was 75.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 75.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 27, 2026 at 2:55 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 24, 2026 at 2:57 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 55d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution Criteria: Resolve YES if, by 11:59 PM EDT on August 24, 2026, the United States officially announces new sanctions against at least one China-based company, financial institution, organization, or individual specifically for providing financial, commercial, energy-related, logistical, or other material support to Iran or Iranian entities. The sanctions must be newly announced during the market period and e…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution Criteria: Resolve YES if, by 11:59 PM EDT on August 24, 2026, the United States officially announces new sanctions against at least one China-based company, financial institution, organization, or individual specifically for providing financial, commercial, energy-related, logistical, or other material support to Iran or Iranian entities. The sanctions must be newly announced during the market period and explicitly connected to Iran. Sanctions against Iranian entities alone, general threats against China, diplomatic warnings, export restrictions unrelated to Iran, or sanctions against entities in other countries do not count. Hong Kong-based entities count as China-based for the purposes of this market. Resolution will be based primarily on announcements by the U.S. Treasury Department, OFAC, the White House, or the U.S. State Department, with Reuters or the Associated Press as secondary sources. Resolve NO otherwise.