July 26 (7/26/26) Will I be below 300 lbs. at my morning weigh-in? 314.2 today.
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 30.8%.
- Final market price
- 30.8%
- Event deadline
- July 26, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
July 26 (7/26/26) Will I be below 300 lbs. at my morning weigh-in? 314.2 today. The final Manifold price was 30.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 30.8%.
- Market data as of
- July 30, 2026 at 12:26 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:44 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- July 26, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 83d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if my weight is strictly below 300.0 lbs during my morning weigh-in on July 26, 2026. It resolves to NO if my weight is 300.0 lbs or higher during that weigh-in.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if my weight is strictly below 300.0 lbs during my morning weigh-in on July 26, 2026. It resolves to NO if my weight is 300.0 lbs or higher during that weigh-in. Background As of June 20, 2026, my weight is 314.2 lbs. To reach a target weight below 300.0 lbs by July 26, 2026, I need to lose more than 14.2 lbs over a period of 36 days. This requires an average weight loss of approximately 2.76 lbs per week. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.