PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 11m ago

Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 30, 2026?

As of Oct 6, 2026, 1:53 AM ET, Polymarket priced this market at 59.5% (down from 63.0% 24 hours earlier). It had $27K traded in the past 24 hours, $27.9K of order-book liquidity and a bid-ask spread of 5.0 pts. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
59.5%
−3.5 percentage points
over 24 hours63.0% → 59.5%
55 days until the event deadline
Deadline: November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, an unusually wide spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth, an unusually wide spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Forming

Movement has slowed (3.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$13.4K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS George Washington (CVN-73) departs the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS George Washington (CVN-73) departs the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Washington will be considered to have departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has departed the CENTCOM area of responsibility or entered the any other area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically exited the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The departure must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS George Washington left the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS George Washington left the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS George Washington left the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.” Port calls, temporary stops, crew liberty at an intermediate port, or other movements within the CENTCOM area of responsibility will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will depart, is preparing to depart, or is awaiting relief will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying departure has occurred. A qualifying departure will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 3.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (63.0% → 59.5%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 6, 2:04 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.

One big traderLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
One big trader

Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.

  • One participant drove 96% of recent flow

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
26Low
Where the price path tends to go next476 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting92%
  • Stable consensus3%
  • Illiquid / quiet2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$27K

Liquidity

$27.9K

Total volume

$27.7K

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
5.0 pts
Best bid
57.0%
Best ask
62.0%
7-day range
59.5% – 63.0%
Resolves
Nov 30, 2026
Change (pts)1H-0.56H-3.524H-3.57D-3.5

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