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Currently 50% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 34/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Only Manifold has this matched event in the current feed
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin markethttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eb7tgP7Bla8 -- I'll be following this five min routine every day which according to Jeff, guarantees a 50% increase in my max number of pull ups. Day one test I could do 13 pull ups. Followed by another 20 over 5 minutes after a 2 min break. Resolves yes if I do 20 pull ups without a break at any point before 25th June. No otherwise. I will only bet yes in this market. Bet no and allow me the pleasure of proving you wrong.
Magnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.