ManifoldPlay moneyAI / TechLikely noiseUpdated 8m ago

Will Roofcast's pilot for their property prediction platform get 50 sign ups before October 12?

As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 37.5% (down from 74.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 11.7K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 6K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability

37.5%

−36.5 percentage points

over 24 hours74.1% → 37.5%

Moving fastBig move, weak backingEnds in 3hResolving soon

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

6K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

11.7K mana

Total volume

17K mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts

45%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

Trades

over 3 days

Largest order

2.6K mana

17K mana traded across these 67 trades (last 3 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$17K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Roofcast built a property prediction platform, for real estate agents and enthusiasts. They start with a pilot on October 12.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Roofcast built a property prediction platform, for real estate agents and enthusiasts. They start with a pilot on October 12. Sign ups for the pilot run via https://roofcast.com/waitlist?src=tBxBMm. Update 2026-10-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only signups from Florida residents count towards the total.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 36.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (74.1% → 37.6%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

The market's deadline arrivesOctober 11, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:33 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence

Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

Probability moved 24.1 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability

Reliability score

16Low

Where the price path tends to go next38 observed

Thin-liquidity spike62%
Choppy / mean-reverting27%
Stable consensus6%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life ~1h

PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data