Will my net worth on Manifold Markets reach 18,000 by October 18, 2026? (10/18/26)
As of Sep 30, 2026, 5:06 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 33.2% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity.
Data is not live — latest snapshot Sep 30, 5:06 PM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if my net worth on Manifold Markets (denominated in mana, $\mathcal{M}$) reaches 18,000 or more at any point on or before October 18, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if my net worth on Manifold Markets (denominated in mana, $\mathcal{M}$) reaches 18,000 or more at any point on or before October 18, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. Source of Truth: My public Manifold Markets profile and portfolio balance. Timing: This market can resolve YES early if my net worth touches or exceeds 18,000 $\mathcal{M}$ before the deadline. If it does not reach 18,000 $\mathcal{M}$ by 11:59 PM PT on October 18, 2026, it will resolve to NO. Verification: I will resolve this market based on my account's balance history. If necessary, I will post a screenshot of my net worth chart as proof in the comments. Background Net worth on Manifold Markets represents the sum of a user's liquid mana balance and the current estimated value of their open betting positions (portfolio value). This market tracks the creator's personal trading progression toward the 18,000 mana milestone. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 19, 2026 at 2:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 30, 9:10 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
- Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ50
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 33.2%
- Resolves
- Oct 19, 2026