Markets priced 50–60%
The individual resolved markets behind this bucket of the calibration curve. “Priced” is what the market showed 24 hours before its deadline — a real forecast, not the settlement price.
Showing the 200 most recent graded markets in this range · 104 resolved YES (52%) of those shown; the calibration curve counts every graded market in the range.
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Oct 19, 2026priced 50.5%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Oct 17, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Oct 15, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Will I only take cold showers next week? (Ṁ10 bonus)Manifold · Oct 15, 2026priced 52.0%NO✗
- Will I avoid audiovisual media before 6 p.m. every day next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifold · Oct 15, 2026priced 53.7%NO✗
- Will I exercise every single day next week? (Ṁ10 bonus)Manifold · Oct 15, 2026priced 51.1%NO✗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.6% for the year ending in September 2026?Kalshi · Oct 14, 2026priced 51.5%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Oct 13, 2026priced 50.4%NO✗
- Will I only take cold showers next week? (Ṁ10 bonus)Manifold · Oct 12, 2026priced 52.8%YES✓
- Une démission est annoncée dans un grand laboratoire d'IA entre le 5 et le 12 octobre 2026?Manifold · Oct 12, 2026priced 54.8%NO✗
- Will I become overweight within 2 months?Manifold · Oct 11, 2026priced 59.3%YES✓
- Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifold · Oct 11, 2026priced 52.5%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Oct 11, 2026priced 50.0%NO✗
- Will my current Manifold streak last until 2027?Manifold · Oct 11, 2026priced 51.9%NO✗
- Will silver outperform gold over the next week?Manifold · Oct 9, 2026priced 54.7%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Oct 9, 2026priced 51.0%YES✓
- Will a round of the WRC be planned to take place in the USA in 2027?Manifold · Oct 8, 2026priced 54.8%YES✓
- Will OpenAI retract any of its AI-Driven Mathematical Results before 2027?Manifold · Oct 8, 2026priced 54.0%YES✓
- Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom next week? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifold · Oct 8, 2026priced 59.9%NO✗
- Will I make it to October 12 without turning on the heat in my house?Manifold · Oct 7, 2026priced 59.0%NO✗
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?Polymarket · Oct 7, 2026priced 56.5%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Oct 7, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Will I get accepted to Inkhaven?Manifold · Oct 6, 2026priced 57.7%NO✗
- Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket · Oct 4, 2026priced 57.5%NO✗
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket · Oct 4, 2026priced 58.5%NO✗
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?Polymarket · Oct 4, 2026priced 51.0%NO✗
- Will any driver competing in the WRC2 Championship outscore a WRC driver in the WRC Championship?Manifold · Oct 4, 2026priced 52.9%YES✓
- Will I get a haircut in a week?Manifold · Oct 4, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Oct 3, 2026priced 50.3%YES✓
- Will my passport be okay?Manifold · Oct 2, 2026priced 59.0%NO✗
- Bitcoin $86,000.00 before EOD October 4 2026?Manifold · Oct 2, 2026priced 52.0%YES✓
- Will I stay in masters this season?Manifold · Oct 1, 2026priced 53.1%NO✗
- Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?Polymarket · Oct 1, 2026priced 53.0%NO✗
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?Polymarket · Sep 29, 2026priced 57.5%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Sep 26, 2026priced 50.0%NO✗
- Will there be a Jev-style decision output model not made by typesafe on OpenRouter by end 2026?Manifold · Sep 25, 2026priced 59.0%YES✓
- Will I remember to check this poll in 1 week?Manifold · Sep 24, 2026priced 54.3%NO✗
- Manifold allows you to set starting percentage for sets and multi choice by end of month?Manifold · Sep 22, 2026priced 57.1%YES✓
- BTC Up or Down 1dManifold · Sep 21, 2026priced 51.0%YES✓
- Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 September 14-20?Polymarket · Sep 21, 2026priced 57.0%NO✗
- Random resolver 🎲Manifold · Sep 19, 2026priced 51.0%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Sep 18, 2026priced 50.7%NO✗
- Trump Media & Technology Group Corp Stock closes at $8.50 or higher on Thursday 17 Sep 2026?Manifold · Sep 17, 2026priced 52.0%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Sep 16, 2026priced 51.0%NO✗
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?Polymarket · Sep 15, 2026priced 54.5%YES✓
- Will Union Berlin defeat Schalke 04 ?Manifold · Sep 12, 2026priced 50.0%NO✗
- Will Sevilla beat Valencia?Manifold · Sep 12, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Sep 12, 2026priced 51.0%NO✗
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in August 2026?Kalshi · Sep 11, 2026priced 59.5%YES✓
- Will CPI rise more than 0.3% in August 2026?Kalshi · Sep 11, 2026priced 57.0%YES✓
- 📈 Will Adobe report Q3 FY2026 revenue of at least $6.80 billion?Manifold · Sep 10, 2026priced 56.0%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Sep 10, 2026priced 50.3%NO✗
- [SHORT FUSE] Will this market close below 50%?Manifold · Sep 9, 2026priced 50.8%YES✓
- 9984 reaches 6800 by Sep 10?Manifold · Sep 8, 2026priced 54.0%YES✓
- Will YES have more holders than NO? (24h quick fuse)Manifold · Sep 8, 2026priced 55.6%YES✓
- Will I laugh a genuine laugh this month (September)?Manifold · Sep 8, 2026priced 53.5%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Sep 8, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Will I fall of my office chair ?Manifold · Sep 7, 2026priced 52.0%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Sep 6, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Which side is better at bribing me? (Week 1)Manifold · Sep 4, 2026priced 50.3%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Sep 4, 2026priced 51.0%NO✗
- Will Ed Markey get at least 60% of the vote in the Massachusetts Senate Primary (Democratic)?Manifold · Sep 2, 2026priced 55.2%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Sep 2, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Will QQQ close above $709.66 on Friday, August 28, 2026?Manifold · Aug 30, 2026priced 56.0%YES✓
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 28, 2026priced 51.5%YES✓
- [Short Fuse] Will Bitcoin increase from August 26 to 27?Manifold · Aug 27, 2026priced 52.4%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 27, 2026priced 50.5%YES✓
- Will Captain Sauce upload a video this week?Manifold · Aug 26, 2026priced 53.1%YES✓
- Will Daniel Lord livestream between Aug 24 and September 1st in 2026?Manifold · Aug 26, 2026priced 50.9%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 25, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- [Short Fuse] Will Bitcoin increase from August 22nd to 23nd?Manifold · Aug 24, 2026priced 56.4%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 23, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Will a full Safety Car be deployed during the Dutch GP?Manifold · Aug 23, 2026priced 55.3%YES✓
- Will Daniel Lord upload a new YouTube video before September 1, 2026?Manifold · Aug 22, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Will Daniel livestream before September 1, 2026Manifold · Aug 22, 2026priced 50.6%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 21, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 21?Polymarket · Aug 21, 2026priced 59.1%YES✓
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on August 20?Polymarket · Aug 20, 2026priced 59.4%YES✓
- Will Bitcoin be higher 14 days from now?Manifold · Aug 19, 2026priced 55.0%YES✓
- Will Stripe buy OpenRouter before October?Manifold · Aug 19, 2026priced 54.8%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 19, 2026priced 50.7%NO✗
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 18, 2026priced 57.5%YES✓
- Will this market finish with at least 20 unique traders? (Market closes at 1200 EDT, August 17, 2026)Manifold · Aug 17, 2026priced 50.0%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 16, 2026priced 50.0%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 14, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Will Gemini 3.7 Flash be released by the end of August 2026?Manifold · Aug 13, 2026priced 55.5%YES✓
- Will I get a clear picture of the eclipse?Manifold · Aug 12, 2026priced 57.0%YES✓
- Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.3% for the year ending in July 2026?Kalshi · Aug 12, 2026priced 51.0%YES✓
- Will somebody get legally married at the SF Pursuit finale?Manifold · Aug 12, 2026priced 55.3%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 10, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Ethereum price at Aug 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?Kalshi · Aug 8, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Did pharma's trade network reorganize more than agriculture's under COVID? (H3-P, 2017→2022)Manifold · Aug 8, 2026priced 59.0%YES✓
- Will I avoid media and distracting apps before 1 p.m. every day in August? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifold · Aug 8, 2026priced 59.9%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 8, 2026priced 50.5%YES✓
- Will Bitcoin close daily candle above $66,000 on August 6?Manifold · Aug 6, 2026priced 57.7%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 6, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Jason Arday leaves Cambridge before 2028Manifold · Aug 5, 2026priced 50.1%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 4, 2026priced 50.7%YES✓
- Will I make dinner today?Manifold · Aug 4, 2026priced 50.5%YES✓
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?Polymarket · Aug 4, 2026priced 50.5%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Aug 2, 2026priced 51.0%NO✗
- Will I have 7 weigh-ins at or below 200 lbs by July 31?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 52.4%YES✓
- 𓆩✧𓆪 Will I be promoted to PLATINUM this month? 𓆩✧𓆪Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 58.0%YES✓
- I will build a split keyboard by EOYManifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 57.5%YES✓
- Silver price under $69 in July 2026?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 53.7%YES✓
- Will Disney’s live-action Moana outgross Universal's Minions & Monsters domestically by July 30?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 53.2%NO✗
- I'm very likely to be #1 in my silver group. In the JULY season, will I be top 5 (next season)?Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 54.8%YES✓
- Will I be an Expert on CF before August? (sorry the previous one was wrong)Manifold · Aug 1, 2026priced 51.5%NO✗
- Will I reach 15 followers before august?Manifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 59.0%NO✗
- Will silver close above $60 at the end of July, 2026 based on SI=F ticker on Yahoo Finance ($60.82 at market creation)Manifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 54.0%NO✗
- Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of July 2026?Manifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 51.6%NO✗
- Yes versus NoManifold · Jul 31, 2026priced 54.7%YES✓
- Vozinha to Inter Miami?Manifold · Jul 30, 2026priced 57.3%NO✗
- Will Vladimir Putin's approval rating decrease in July 2026?Manifold · Jul 30, 2026priced 53.4%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jul 29, 2026priced 51.0%YES✓
- Will I beat Predictle in 1 turn TWICE (starting today) by 8/8/26?Manifold · Jul 29, 2026priced 55.6%YES✓
- At least 3 different songs will reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 between June 14, 2026 and July 26, 2026 (7/26/26).Manifold · Jul 27, 2026priced 54.8%NO✗
- Will I run across someone I consider a celebrity at San Diego Comic-Con besides Lou Ferrigno? (I have before.)Manifold · Jul 26, 2026priced 56.0%NO✗
- I'll be attending San Diego Comic-Con on Sunday. Will I spend more than $222.22 on merch?Manifold · Jul 26, 2026priced 51.6%NO✗
- Will I finish Ironman 70.3 Ohio in under 4h30m?Manifold · Jul 26, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Chasing Yellow Categoria D: o Portela fica à frente do Marques na GC?Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Chasing Yellow Categoria B: o Reis fica à frente do Vieira na GC?Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Chasing Yellow Categoria E: o Comandante fica à frente do Pirata na GC?Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Подаст ли КИТИК заявку на контракт на пост разработчика проекта Орион ?Manifold · Jul 25, 2026priced 54.9%NO✗
- Will the next Claude Opus make a better paper shredding simulator than Claude Fable 5?Manifold · Jul 24, 2026priced 59.4%NO✗
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Polymarket · Jul 24, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Will SpaceX valuation drop by -50% or more from its ATH?Manifold · Jul 23, 2026priced 56.7%YES✓
- Will Apple release another iOS beta before August?Manifold · Jul 23, 2026priced 53.4%YES✓
- Mass shooting on Wednesday?Manifold · Jul 23, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Here 33 days. This is my 112th proposition. Will I reach 200 propositions by 7/26/26?Manifold · Jul 19, 2026priced 60.0%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jul 19, 2026priced 50.2%YES✓
- Will Dricus du Plessis beat Kamaru Usman?Manifold · Jul 19, 2026priced 54.8%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jul 17, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Will Lebron James sign within the next week?Manifold · Jul 15, 2026priced 53.0%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jul 15, 2026priced 50.3%NO✗
- Will I go to the gym at least once this week?Manifold · Jul 13, 2026priced 54.8%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jul 13, 2026priced 50.0%NO✗
- Will Fable usage on subscription be extended again past July 12?Manifold · Jul 12, 2026priced 57.9%YES✓
- It is more likely that the Moon is made of Parmesan cheese than Gouda cheese [Convince the Machine #17]Manifold · Jul 12, 2026priced 59.0%YES✓
- Will England score the first goal of the match against Norway?Manifold · Jul 11, 2026priced 53.0%NO✗
- Attempt #2! Will I create a new YouTube Channel by 7/10/26?Manifold · Jul 11, 2026priced 55.0%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jul 11, 2026priced 50.5%YES✓
- Can Manifold solve this problem?Manifold · Jul 10, 2026priced 58.0%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jul 9, 2026priced 50.5%YES✓
- Will the US Initial Jobless Claims figure published this week be higher than 215,000?Manifold · Jul 9, 2026priced 57.2%NO✗
- Will Planter drop out by the end of Friday?Manifold · Jul 8, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Will I beat Predictle in 1 turn TWICE by 7/7/26? (First time I won in 1 turn today does not count!)Manifold · Jul 7, 2026priced 53.9%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jul 7, 2026priced 50.7%YES✓
- Who will win, USA or Belgium?Manifold · Jul 6, 2026priced 52.6%NO✗
- ⚽️ Will USA defeat Belgium?Manifold · Jul 6, 2026priced 52.8%NO✗
- Will i go to the gym at least 3 times this week?Manifold · Jul 6, 2026priced 52.0%NO✗
- Export controls on Fable 5 get rescinded within 72 hours of the release of GPT 5.6?Manifold · Jul 5, 2026priced 52.5%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jul 5, 2026priced 50.5%YES✓
- Will France beat Paraguay by 2+ goals in regulation on July 4, 2026 (7/4/26)?Manifold · Jul 4, 2026priced 54.8%NO✗
- Will the Argentina defeat Cabo Verde by 2 or more goals?Manifold · Jul 3, 2026priced 58.0%NO✗
- When re-enabled, will Fable require verification via government ID?Manifold · Jul 3, 2026priced 52.0%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jul 3, 2026priced 50.7%YES✓
- Will CrowdStrike (CRWD) close higher in its first week after the 4:1 split?Manifold · Jul 3, 2026priced 52.6%YES✓
- Will the DC Fourth of July festivities be altered because of the heat?Manifold · Jul 3, 2026priced 50.0%YES✓
- Will the May Jobs report be revised upwards in June?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 54.0%NO✗
- Will June 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 51.8%NO✗
- Will the June 2026 U.S. U-6 unemployment rate be at least 8.0%?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 55.2%NO✗
- Who will win the presidential Perú elections?Manifold · Jul 2, 2026priced 55.0%NO✗
- Fable 5 reenabled for Americans by July 10?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 52.9%YES✓
- Däilÿ Cöin Flip - Day 416 : Best word competition.Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 50.4%YES✓
- Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 53.1%YES✓
- Will I exercise every single day until July?Manifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 56.0%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jul 1, 2026priced 50.0%NO✗
- Will May 2026 U.S. job openings be at least 7.5 million?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 52.3%YES✓
- Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 53.7%YES✓
- Composer 3 released today?Manifold · Jun 30, 2026priced 53.4%NO✗
- Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?Manifold · Jun 29, 2026priced 55.3%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jun 29, 2026priced 50.5%YES✓
- Will I qualify for the 2027 USA TST?Manifold · Jun 26, 2026priced 59.0%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jun 26, 2026priced 50.5%YES✓
- Will a mod comment on this market?Manifold · Jun 25, 2026priced 53.1%NO✗
- Will someone from Manifold Markets join me on OpenChat by 0ctober 30, 2026 (10/30/26)?Manifold · Jun 25, 2026priced 52.4%YES✓
- The Whaleslayer CoinflipManifold · Jun 24, 2026priced 50.1%NO✗
- Will I ban mobile devices from my bedroom until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifold · Jun 24, 2026priced 59.4%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jun 24, 2026priced 50.5%YES✓
- Will the money from the prize draw be paid before end of month?Manifold · Jun 23, 2026priced 59.0%YES✓
- Will Toy Story 5 gross $162.5M or more domestically in its opening weekend?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 50.7%NO✗
- Will Ethereum be higher exactly a week from now?Manifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jun 22, 2026priced 50.6%YES✓
- This market resolves to whatever you persuade me to.Manifold · Jun 21, 2026priced 52.3%YES✓
- Will my "Be My Fashion Consultant" event at Manifest cause me to acquire at least two clothing items that excite me?Manifold · Jun 19, 2026priced 59.5%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jun 20, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)Manifold · Jun 20, 2026priced 54.4%NO✗
- Will I drop 4.4 pounds in 111 hours and 11 minutes? (I'm 313.0 and down 13 lbs. in 5 weeks.)Manifold · Jun 19, 2026priced 54.0%NO✗
- Both teams happy with a draw?Manifold · Jun 18, 2026priced 55.6%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jun 18, 2026priced 50.5%NO✗
- Do you like 58% odds?Manifold · Jun 18, 2026priced 58.7%YES✓
- Will the US Initial Jobless Claims figure published this week be higher than 229,000?Manifold · Jun 18, 2026priced 50.0%NO✗
- Will Tetra grow ill on this trip to China?Manifold · Jun 18, 2026priced 52.5%YES✓
- 🏆 Will Corner House complete the perfect season and win the ABL Season 21 Championship?Manifold · Jun 16, 2026priced 57.9%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jun 16, 2026priced 50.5%YES✓
- Will someone make out with CoderCorgi at Manifest?Manifold · Jun 15, 2026priced 50.0%NO✗
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jun 13, 2026priced 50.4%YES✓
- Daily CoinflipManifold · Jun 11, 2026priced 50.9%YES✓
- Will Silver drop below $65 per ounce by close of market on Friday June 12?Manifold · Jun 9, 2026priced 55.3%YES✓
Shows up to the 200 most recent graded outcomes in this range. ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.