Will somebody get legally married at the SF Pursuit finale?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 55.3%.
- Final market price
- 55.3%
- Event deadline
- August 12, 2026 at 3:39 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will somebody get legally married at the SF Pursuit finale? The final Manifold price was 55.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 55.3%.
- Market data as of
- August 14, 2026 at 6:29 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 12, 2026 at 3:39 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 67d ago
What this market actually measures
SF Pursuit is a monthlong puzzle/scavenger hunt in San Francisco. The Time Traveler's Ball (the hunt finale) is this Tuesday from 6:30 to 9:00 PM somewhere in SF.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
SF Pursuit is a monthlong puzzle/scavenger hunt in San Francisco. The Time Traveler's Ball (the hunt finale) is this Tuesday from 6:30 to 9:00 PM somewhere in SF. On the website, there's a link to this form to get legally married at the finale. You don't have to click through that page in order to get invited to the finale, and as far as I know the marriage thing isn't advertised anywhere else. Ethical market manipulation is encouraged. [image]