Will Stripe buy OpenRouter before October?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Final market price
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- August 19, 2026 at 2:31 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Stripe buy OpenRouter before October? The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Market data as of
- August 22, 2026 at 2:49 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:39 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- August 19, 2026 at 2:31 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 60d ago
What this market actually measures
Market resolves to YES if Stripe officially announces or completes the acquisition of OpenRouter before market close The time that the deal is closed will be used. So if OpenRouter announces the acquisition on October 3rd but they signed the papers on September 27th, then the market would still resolve to YES.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Market resolves to YES if Stripe officially announces or completes the acquisition of OpenRouter before market close The time that the deal is closed will be used. So if OpenRouter announces the acquisition on October 3rd but they signed the papers on September 27th, then the market would still resolve to YES. If no reliable date can be found for when the legal documents for the acquisition were finalized, the date the acquisition was announced will be used instead. Resolution source will be any announcements from OpenRouter or Stripe or trustworthy news sources like Bloomberg. Background In August 2026, newspapers reported that Stripe offered to acquire OpenRouter for $7 billion, a massive jump in valuation from OpenRouter's $1.3 billion valuation in May 2026. OpenRouter, founded in 2023, provides a platform through which developers can use models from various AI labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepSeek with ease. Instead of depositing credits into every single AI provider the developer wishes to use, they could just use OpenRouter instead and use one central API. The startup previously established a formal billing and invoicing integration with Stripe in January 2026.