ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / FedUpdated 2m ago

Will silver outperform gold over the next week?

Final price
44.8%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

Resolved NO

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 44.8%.

Final market price
44.8%
Event deadline
October 9, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will silver outperform gold over the next week? The final Manifold price was 44.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 44.8%.

Market data as of
October 11, 2026 at 5:25 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
October 11, 2026 at 5:26 PM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
October 9, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
2m ago

What this market actually measures

This market compares the gold-to-silver price ratio at the weekly close on Friday, October 2, 2026, with the weekly close on Friday, October 9, 2026. Starting gold-to-silver ratio: approximately 68.59.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market compares the gold-to-silver price ratio at the weekly close on Friday, October 2, 2026, with the weekly close on Friday, October 9, 2026. Starting gold-to-silver ratio: approximately 68.59. Resolves YES if the ratio shown by GoldPrice.org after the September 18 New York market close is lower than the September 11 closing ratio. A lower ratio means silver increased more—or declined less—than gold. Resolves NO if the ratio is higher, meaning gold outperformed silver. If the two ratios are identical when rounded to two decimal places, the market resolves 50%. GoldPrice.org’s historical closing data will control if another source displays a different price. Resolution criteria This market compares the gold-to-silver price ratio at the weekly close on Friday, October 2, 2026, with the weekly close on Friday, October 9, 2026. Resolves YES if the gold-to-silver ratio shown by GoldPrice.org after the Friday, October 9, 2026 New York market close is lower than the Friday, October 2, 2026 closing ratio. (A lower ratio means silver outperformed gold, either by increasing more or declining less.) Resolves NO if the October 9, 2026 closing ratio is higher than the October 2, 2026 closing ratio. (A higher ratio means gold outperformed silver.) Resolves 50% if the two ratios are identical when rounded to two decimal places. The closing gold-to-silver ratios will be determined using historical data hosted on GoldPrice.org, which will control if other sources display conflicting prices. For reference, the closing ratio on Friday, October 2, 2026, was approximately 68.39. Background The gold-to-silver ratio is calculated by dividing the spot price of an ounce of gold by the spot price of an ounce of silver, representing how many ounces of silver are required to purchase a single ounce of gold. Historically, a declining ratio indicates that silver is outperforming gold. In early October 2026, gold has been consolidating around $4,140 per ounce, with silver trading near $60 per ounce, yielding a ratio of approximately 68.4. This sits slightly above the historical median of ~61.6 since 1968. Macroeconomic variables shaping precious metal performance during the week of October 5, 2026, include the release of U.S. Federal Reserve minutes and shifting Treasury yields. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Market data

24h volume

20 mana

Liquidity

100 mana

Total volume

73.9 mana

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
44.8%
Resolves
Oct 9, 2026

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