ManifoldUncategorizedUpdated 43d ago

Will Daniel livestream before September 1, 2026

Final price
50.6%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 50.6%.

Final market price
50.6%
Event deadline
August 22, 2026 at 6:53 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will Daniel livestream before September 1, 2026 The final Manifold price was 50.6%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 50.6%.

Market data as of
August 25, 2026 at 1:18 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
October 7, 2026 at 9:25 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
August 22, 2026 at 6:53 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
43d ago

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Daniel Lord (known online as "Hiding In My Room" or "HIMR") broadcasts a public livestream on any major streaming platform (such as YouTube, Kick, or Twitch) between the creation of this market (August 20, 2026) and September 1, 2026 (00:00 UTC). To qualify for a YES resolution, the stream must: Be hosted on one of his verifiable accounts, including his Kick Channel …

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Daniel Lord (known online as "Hiding In My Room" or "HIMR") broadcasts a public livestream on any major streaming platform (such as YouTube, Kick, or Twitch) between the creation of this market (August 20, 2026) and September 1, 2026 (00:00 UTC). To qualify for a YES resolution, the stream must: Be hosted on one of his verifiable accounts, including his Kick Channel or any active YouTube channel associated with him. Last for at least 15 continuous minutes (to exclude accidental starts, test streams, or brief technical failures). Be verifiable via public stream VODs, direct archive clips, or tracking on the community subreddit r/HIMRFAM2. If no qualifying livestream takes place within this window, the market resolves to NO. Background Daniel Lord is a British vlogger and IRL streamer who broadcasts under the alias "Hiding In My Room" (HIMR). His online career is characterized by cyclical patterns of oversharing, sudden channel deletions, and erratic life updates. Following a period of absence where his main YouTube channel was nuked in late 2025, Daniel unexpectedly returned to livestreaming in late July 2026. This market tracks whether his return to streaming will continue with at least one broadcast before September 1, 2026.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ26.1

Category
Uncategorized
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
50.6%
Resolves
Aug 22, 2026

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