Will I only take cold showers next week? (Ṁ10 bonus)
As of Oct 4, 2026, 2:31 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 51.6% (up from 50.0% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ42 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (1.6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 11, 2026 at 5:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 4, 2:45 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet100%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ42
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ42
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 51.6%
- 7-day range
- 50.0% – 51.8%
- Resolves
- Oct 11, 2026