Will YES have more holders than NO? (24h quick fuse)
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 96.8%.
- Final market price
- 96.8%
- Event deadline
- September 8, 2026 at 5:24 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will YES have more holders than NO? (24h quick fuse) The final Manifold price was 96.8%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 96.8%.
- Market data as of
- September 11, 2026 at 1:13 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 22, 2026 at 1:51 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 8, 2026 at 5:24 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 42d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, at the official close of the market (intended to be 24 hours after its creation), the number of unique user accounts holding a non-zero position in YES is strictly greater than the number of unique user accounts holding a non-zero position in NO. Otherwise, if the number of NO holders is greater than or equal to the number of YES holders, this market will resolv…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, at the official close of the market (intended to be 24 hours after its creation), the number of unique user accounts holding a non-zero position in YES is strictly greater than the number of unique user accounts holding a non-zero position in NO. Otherwise, if the number of NO holders is greater than or equal to the number of YES holders, this market will resolve to NO. Source of truth: The "Holders" tab and contract data of this specific Manifold market page at the time of resolution. Ties: If the number of unique holders for both YES and NO is exactly equal at close, the market will resolve to NO (as YES did not have more holders). Background This is a meta-market experimenting with short-term trading dynamics ("quick fuse"). On Manifold, "holders" refers to the number of unique user accounts that currently hold a non-zero balance of shares for a given outcome. Users who sell their entire position before the market closes will not count toward the final holder tally.