Will YES have more holders than NO? (24h quick fuse)
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume. The probability moved another 2.4 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 2.4 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 8, 2026 at 5:24 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 7, 7:20 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 83% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (2 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ1
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ6
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 52.9%
- 7-day range
- 50.5% – 52.9%
- Resolves
- Sep 8, 2026