ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDevelopingUpdated 7m ago

Will I only take cold showers next week? (Ṁ10 bonus)

As of Oct 11, 2026, 6:24 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 52.0% (up from 50.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 64 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
52.0%
+2 percentage points
over 24 hours50.0% → 52.0%

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

64 mana

Total volume

64 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
78%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

6

Trades

6

over 3h

Largest order

50 mana

64 mana traded across these 6 trades (last 3h).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$64 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 25, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 6:31 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.

One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
One big trader

Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.

  • One participant drove 78% of recent flow
  • Move not broadly confirmed (6 participants)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
11Low
Where the price path tends to go next1009 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

64 mana

Liquidity

1K mana

Total volume

64 mana

Category
Other
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
52.0%
7-day range
50.0% – 52.5%
Resolves
Oct 25, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H+2.024H+2.07D+2.0

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