ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDevelopingUpdated 7m ago

Daily Coinflip

As of Oct 11, 2026, 4:24 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 50.3% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 2.6K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 10K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
50.3%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soon

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

Medium

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

10K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

2.6K mana

Total volume

0 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

Broad participation
27%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

11

Trades

25

over 11h

Largest order

500 mana

1.8K mana traded across these 25 trades (last 11h).

Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one bettor.

Recent trade activity$1.8K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesOctober 12, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 4:32 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

  • Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next486 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting91%
  • Stable consensus5%
  • Illiquid / quiet2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~8h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

2.6K mana

Liquidity

10K mana

Total volume

0 mana

Category
Other
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
50.3%
7-day range
50.0% – 51.0%
Resolves
Oct 12, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+0.37D+0.3

Related markets

Will Friedrich Merz cease to be chancellor before 14th October 2026?

1%YESTrust 36
Manifold281.6 mana 24h

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

0%YESTrust 92
Polymarket$107.2K 24h

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

17%YESTrust 94
Polymarket$79.4K 24h

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

84%YESTrust 77
Polymarket$46.4K 24h

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

0%YESTrust 98
Polymarket$102.2K 24h

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

1%YESTrust 98
Polymarket$199.4K 24h