Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
11.8 mana
Total volume
49.5 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 11:54 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 54.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 11.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
54.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soonNot live — snapshot Oct 20, 11:54 AM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
23%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
12
over 14 days
Largest order
10 mana
43.6 mana traded across these 12 trades (last 14 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$43.6 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the absolute difference between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s and Flávio Bolsonaro’s shares of valid votes in the second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election is less than 3.00 percentage points. For example, a 51.4%–48.6% result represents a 2.8-point margin and resolves YES.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the absolute difference between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s and Flávio Bolsonaro’s shares of valid votes in the second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election is less than 3.00 percentage points. For example, a 51.4%–48.6% result represents a 2.8-point margin and resolves YES. A 51.5%–48.5% result represents exactly 3.0 points and resolves NO. Resolution will use the final official valid-vote percentages published by Brazil’s Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE). Blank and invalid ballots are excluded. If the October 25 runoff is postponed, the market remains unresolved until the rescheduled vote occurs. If no runoff takes place by December 31, 2026, the market resolves N/A. The market intentionally closes roughly one day before voting begins, preserving a genuine forecasting window while reducing the opportunity to trade on election-day turnout signals, exit polling, or other information already beginning to reveal the result.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 24, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 20, 12:47 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
14Low
Where the price path tends to go next595 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Thin-liquidity spike1%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0