[SHORT FUSE] Will this market close below 50%?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 49.3%.
- Final market price
- 49.3%
- Event deadline
- September 9, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
[SHORT FUSE] Will this market close below 50%? The final Manifold price was 49.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 49.3%.
- Market data as of
- September 12, 2026 at 2:35 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 24, 2026 at 8:32 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 9, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 42d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if the market displays 49% or lower at close. Resolves NO if the market displays 50% or higher at close.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if the market displays 49% or lower at close. Resolves NO if the market displays 50% or higher at close. The outcome will be determined by the whole-number 'chance' percentage, which is displayed at the top of the market page. Keep in mind that this number is rounded, so the underlying resolution threshold is 49.5% (probability returned by the API). This market closes 10 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC, so within roughly 1 day. If I do not resolve this market within 24 hours after closing, a moderator may do so according to above rules. This is a 1 day version of @/senso/will-this-market-close-below-50-dEts6d6zy5