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ManifoldGeopoliticsUpdated 42d ago

Will I get a clear picture of the eclipse?

Final price
57.0%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 57.0%.

Final market price
57.0%
Event deadline
August 12, 2026 at 3:52 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will I get a clear picture of the eclipse? The final Manifold price was 57.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 57.0%.

Market data as of
August 15, 2026 at 11:49 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 26, 2026 at 5:45 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
August 12, 2026 at 3:52 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
42d ago

What this market actually measures

I'm going to be in a boat departing from Magaluf in Mallorca. Will the clouds clear and let me get a decent photo during totality ?

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

I'm going to be in a boat departing from Magaluf in Mallorca. Will the clouds clear and let me get a decent photo during totality ? Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if I successfully capture a clear photograph showing the solar corona during the totality phase of the August 12, 2026 solar eclipse, taken from a boat departing from Magaluf, Mallorca. A "clear photograph" means the eclipsed sun is visibly distinct and not entirely obscured or ruined by cloud cover, fog, or haze. This market will resolve to NO if I go on the boat trip but fail to capture a clear photo of totality (e.g., due to clouds, marine layer, or camera issues). This market will resolve to N/A if the boat trip departing from Magaluf is canceled, or if I am otherwise unable to embark on the trip on August 12, 2026. Background On August 12, 2026, a total solar eclipse will pass over Spain and the Balearic Islands. Mallorca sits at the very end of the path of totality, meaning the total eclipse will occur extremely low in the sky—only about 2° to 2.5° above the western horizon—at approximately 20:31 local time (CEST), shortly before sunset. Because the eclipse is so low, viewing it from land requires an completely unobstructed view to the west. Observing from a boat departing from Magaluf (on the southwest coast of Mallorca) provides an excellent over-water line of sight, but capturing a clear photo remains highly dependent on the presence of low-level clouds, haze, or a marine layer at the horizon. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ288.3

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
57.0%
Resolves
Aug 12, 2026

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