Will any driver competing in the WRC2 Championship outscore a WRC driver in the WRC Championship?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 9:30 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 58.9% (up from 52.9% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ30 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ220 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
WRC Driver: A driver that has participated in the majority of the WRC events this year. I haven't heard about any WRC2 drivers being given a drive in a WRC event like Oliver Solberg this year, but if that happens, I won't count those points.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
WRC Driver: A driver that has participated in the majority of the WRC events this year. I haven't heard about any WRC2 drivers being given a drive in a WRC event like Oliver Solberg this year, but if that happens, I won't count those points. To clarify, the points being looked at for both sides are WRC drivers' championship points at the end of the season, not WRC vs. WRC2 championship points. Resolution Source: https://www.wrc.com/en/results-and-standings/championship-standings Context: As of market creation, Yohan and Léo Rossel hold a lead greater than 2 points over both full-time Ford M-Sport drivers. Last year, following the same rules, Oliver Solberg, as a WRC2 driver, scored more points than Josh McErlean, a WRC driver. [link preview]
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 6.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (52.9% → 58.9%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 4, 9:39 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
What's happening
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 82% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (3 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ30
Liquidity
Ṁ220
Total volume
Ṁ73.3
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 58.9%
- 7-day range
- 52.9% – 58.9%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026